Minnesota Twins @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · June 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 48% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +2.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.2pp · closed at 2.01 (49.8%)
Houston Astros
Model
48%
Market
50%
Edge
+2.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
54.0%
—
+ Season record + form
52.9%
-1.1pp
Calibration offset
52.0%
-0.9pp
Platt rescale
44.9%
-7.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.1%
-0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.4%
+4.3pp
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