Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Recap

MLB · July 01, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 43% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +7.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.4pp · closed at 2.34 (42.7%)

Small Play Dog play

Chicago White Sox

Model 43%

Market 43%

Edge +7.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

50.9% —

+ Season record + form

53.1% +2.2pp

+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)

52.6% -0.5pp

Calibration offset

51.8% -0.8pp

Platt rescale

45.3% -6.5pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

43.2% -2.1pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

43.2% —

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