New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · June 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 35% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.6pp · closed at 3.01 (33.2%)

Small Play Dog play

Toronto Blue Jays

Model 35%

Market 36%

Edge +6.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

35.4% —

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