Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · June 29, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 34% against FanDuel's implied 35% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.8pp · closed at 2.73 (36.6%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
34%
Market
35%
Edge
+4.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
38.3%
—
+ Season record + form
37.4%
-0.9pp
Calibration offset
40.9%
+3.5pp
Platt rescale
35.3%
-5.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
33.3%
-2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
33.9%
+0.6pp
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