Chicago White Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · June 30, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago White Sox WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +6.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.7pp · closed at 2.34 (42.7%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
44%
Market
45%
Edge
+6.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.9%
—
+ Season record + form
53.1%
+2.2pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
52.6%
-0.5pp
Calibration offset
51.8%
-0.8pp
Platt rescale
45.3%
-6.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
43.4%
-1.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.8%
+0.4pp
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