Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres Recap

MLB · June 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 38% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +12.5pp · closed at 2.87 (34.8%)

Small Play Dog play

San Diego Padres

Model 38%

Market 39%

Edge +7.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

46.1% —

+ Season record + form

43.1% -3.0pp

Calibration offset

44.9% +1.8pp

Platt rescale

39.0% -5.9pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

38.3% -0.7pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

37.9% -0.4pp

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