Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers Recap

MLB · June 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Detroit Tigers LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Detroit Tigers at 46% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.8pp · closed at 1.98 (50.5%)

Small Play Dog play

Detroit Tigers

Model 46%

Market 48%

Edge +2.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

51.6% —

+ Season record + form

50.0% -1.7pp

Platt rescale

43.3% -6.7pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

41.7% -1.6pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

46.2% +4.5pp

Model performance on Detroit Tigers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

4 - 9

Win rate

31%

Avg CLV

+3.8pt

ROI

-21.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.