Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · June 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Detroit Tigers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Detroit Tigers at 46% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +2.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.8pp · closed at 1.98 (50.5%)
Detroit Tigers
+110 on FanDuel
Model
46%
Market
48%
Edge
+2.1 pts
Solid 2.1% edge at FanDuel (2.10).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
51.6%
—
+ Season record + form
50.0%
-1.7pp
Platt rescale
43.3%
-6.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.7%
-1.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
46.2%
+4.5pp
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