Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers Recap
MLB · June 28, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago Cubs WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 36% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +4.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -0.7pp · closed at 2.43 (41.1%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
36%
Market
36%
Edge
+4.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
39.6%
—
+ Season record + form
39.0%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
42.0%
+3.0pp
Platt rescale
36.8%
-5.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
34.2%
-2.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
35.8%
+1.6pp
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