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Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants Recap

MLB · June 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Atlanta Braves LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Atlanta Braves at 48% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +13.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +14.4pp  ·  closed at 2.16 (46.3%)

Top Pick Dog play
Atlanta Braves
+112 on FanDuel
Model 48%
Market 47%
Edge +13.6 pts

Model gives 60.8% vs FanDuel's implied 47.2%. Elo gap of +110 backs it.

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
62.1%
+ Season record + form
66.6% +4.5pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
65.8% -0.8pp
Calibration offset
61.3% -4.5pp
Platt rescale
53.3% -8.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
51.9% -1.4pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.6% -4.3pp

Model performance on Atlanta Braves picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
63
W - L
26 - 33
Win rate
44%
Avg CLV
+5.0pt
ROI
-27.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.