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Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · June 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Texas Rangers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 38% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +5.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.2pp  ·  closed at 2.72 (36.8%)

Pass Dog play
Texas Rangers
+152 on FanDuel
Model 38%
Market 40%
Edge +5.2 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.8pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
46.6%
+ Season record + form
47.8% +1.2pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
47.2% -0.6pp
Calibration offset
48.0% +0.8pp
Platt rescale
41.5% -6.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.2% -5.2pp
Final model probability
38.4% +2.2pp

Model performance on Texas Rangers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
12
W - L
5 - 7
Win rate
42%
Avg CLV
+4.3pt
ROI
-25.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.