Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · June 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Texas Rangers WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 38% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +5.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.2pp · closed at 2.72 (36.8%)
Texas Rangers
Model
38%
Market
40%
Edge
+5.2 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
46.6%
—
+ Season record + form
47.8%
+1.2pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
47.2%
-0.6pp
Calibration offset
48.0%
+0.8pp
Platt rescale
41.5%
-6.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.2%
-5.2pp
Final model probability
38.4%
+2.2pp
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