Lakeshore Edge Create Free Account

Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Guardians Recap

MLB · June 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Cleveland Guardians WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Cleveland Guardians at 44% against FanDuel's implied 44% — an edge of +7.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.3pp  ·  closed at 2.33 (42.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Cleveland Guardians
+126 on FanDuel
Model 44%
Market 44%
Edge +7.0 pts

Solid 7.0% edge at FanDuel (2.26).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
53.3%
+ Season record + form
52.1% -1.1pp
Platt rescale
44.1% -8.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.7% -0.4pp

Model performance on Cleveland Guardians picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
43
W - L
15 - 25
Win rate
38%
Avg CLV
+4.5pt
ROI
-17.6%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.