Lakeshore Edge Sign in

Miami Marlins @ St. Louis Cardinals Recap

MLB · June 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — St. Louis Cardinals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +7.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.8pp  ·  closed at 1.99 (50.2%)

Small Play
St. Louis Cardinals
Model 51%
Market 52%
Edge +7.2 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
58.3%
Calibration offset
55.7% -2.6pp
Platt rescale
48.2% -7.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
49.8% +1.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.1% +1.3pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
45
W - L
18 - 27
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+5.5pt
ROI
-11.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.