Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · June 27, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +5.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.9pp · closed at 2.20 (45.5%)
Houston Astros
Model
44%
Market
45%
Edge
+5.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
48.4%
—
+ Season record + form
50.0%
+1.6pp
Platt rescale
43.0%
-7.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.4%
-0.6pp
Final model probability
43.8%
+1.4pp
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