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Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · June 26, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 39% against FanDuel's implied 40% — an edge of +4.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.4pp  ·  closed at 2.56 (39.1%)

Small Play Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+150 on FanDuel
Model 39%
Market 40%
Edge +4.5 pts

Solid 4.5% edge at FanDuel (2.50).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
42.7%
Calibration offset
44.8% +2.1pp
Platt rescale
38.6% -6.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.4% -2.2pp
Final model probability
38.6% +2.2pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
43
W - L
21 - 22
Win rate
49%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
+17.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.