Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap
MLB · June 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 50% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -2.7pp · closed at 1.73 (57.8%)
Toronto Blue Jays
Model
50%
Market
49%
Edge
+6.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
53.4%
—
+ Season record + form
52.2%
-1.2pp
Calibration offset
51.7%
-0.5pp
Platt rescale
44.5%
-7.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.5%
+2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.5%
+4.0pp
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