Texas Rangers @ Toronto Blue Jays Recap

MLB · June 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Toronto Blue Jays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 50% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -2.7pp · closed at 1.73 (57.8%)

Small Play

Toronto Blue Jays

Model 50%

Market 49%

Edge +6.6 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

53.4% —

+ Season record + form

52.2% -1.2pp

Calibration offset

51.7% -0.5pp

Platt rescale

44.5% -7.3pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

46.5% +2.0pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

50.5% +4.0pp

Model performance on Toronto Blue Jays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

11 - 12

Win rate

48%

Avg CLV

+3.7pt

ROI

+12.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.