Chicago Cubs @ New York Mets Recap
MLB · June 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago Cubs WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 50% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp · closed at 1.93 (51.8%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
50%
Market
52%
Edge
+2.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.4%
—
+ Season record + form
52.6%
+2.2pp
Calibration offset
51.8%
-0.8pp
Platt rescale
44.9%
-6.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
46.6%
+1.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.3%
+3.7pp
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