Athletics @ San Francisco Giants Recap

MLB · June 25, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Athletics WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Athletics at 43% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +4.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp · closed at 2.19 (45.7%)

Small Play Dog play

Athletics

Model 43%

Market 45%

Edge +4.1 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

51.1% —

+ Season record + form

53.6% +2.5pp

Calibration offset

52.2% -1.4pp

Platt rescale

44.3% -7.9pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

41.0% -3.3pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

43.0% +2.0pp

Model performance on Athletics picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

18 - 35

Win rate

34%

Avg CLV

+5.8pt

ROI

-13.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.