Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins Recap
MLB · June 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 41% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.4pp · closed at 2.40 (41.7%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
41%
Market
42%
Edge
+4.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
41.9%
—
+ Season record + form
38.0%
-3.9pp
Calibration offset
41.5%
+3.5pp
Platt rescale
35.7%
-5.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.7%
+2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.9%
+3.2pp
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