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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · June 24, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 41% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.4pp  ·  closed at 2.40 (41.7%)

Pass Dog play
Minnesota Twins
+138 on FanDuel
Model 41%
Market 42%
Edge +4.0 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.7pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
41.9%
+ Season record + form
38.0% -3.9pp
Calibration offset
41.5% +3.5pp
Platt rescale
35.7% -5.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.7% +2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.9% +3.2pp

Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
24
W - L
8 - 16
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+2.9pt
ROI
-27.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.