Texas Rangers @ Miami Marlins Recap
MLB · June 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Texas Rangers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.4pp · closed at 2.40 (41.7%)
Texas Rangers
Model
42%
Market
43%
Edge
+4.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
47.0%
—
+ Season record + form
48.3%
+1.3pp
Calibration offset
48.5%
+0.2pp
Platt rescale
41.8%
-6.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.0%
-3.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
41.6%
+3.6pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.