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New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers Recap

MLB · June 23, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — New York Yankees WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Yankees at 52% against FanDuel's implied 53% — an edge of +6.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.4pp  ·  closed at 1.90 (52.6%)

Small Play
New York Yankees
-112 on FanDuel
Model 52%
Market 53%
Edge +6.1 pts

Solid 6.1% edge at FanDuel (1.89). Elo agrees (+78 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
57.7%
+ Season record + form
61.5% +3.8pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
61.0% -0.5pp
Calibration offset
57.8% -3.2pp
Platt rescale
50.1% -7.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
52.2% +2.1pp

Model performance on New York Yankees picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
33
W - L
8 - 21
Win rate
28%
Avg CLV
+5.9pt
ROI
-36.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.