Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels Recap
MLB · June 22, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Los Angeles Angels LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 42% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +8.6pp · closed at 2.48 (40.3%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
42%
Market
42%
Edge
+6.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
49.3%
—
+ Season record + form
47.0%
-2.3pp
Calibration offset
47.6%
+0.6pp
Platt rescale
41.1%
-6.5pp
Final model probability
41.8%
+0.7pp
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