St. Louis Cardinals @ Kansas City Royals Recap

MLB · June 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Kansas City Royals LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Kansas City Royals at 46% against FanDuel's implied 48% — an edge of +9.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: -1.4pp · closed at 1.69 (59.2%)

Top Pick Dog play

Kansas City Royals

Model 46%

Market 48%

Edge +9.7 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Final model probability

46.5% —

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