San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · June 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.7pp · closed at 2.48 (40.3%)
San Diego Padres
Model
42%
Market
43%
Edge
+7.9 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
48.3%
—
+ Season record + form
49.9%
+1.6pp
Platt rescale
42.9%
-7.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.9%
-1.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
42.3%
+0.4pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.