San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers Recap

MLB · June 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +7.9pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +10.7pp · closed at 2.48 (40.3%)

Small Play Dog play

San Diego Padres

Model 42%

Market 43%

Edge +7.9 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

48.3% —

+ Season record + form

49.9% +1.6pp

Platt rescale

42.9% -7.0pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

41.9% -1.0pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

42.3% +0.4pp

Model performance on San Diego Padres picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

4 - 6

Win rate

40%

Avg CLV

+2.1pt

ROI

-45.1%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.