New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap
MLB · June 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — New York Mets LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 37% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.5pp · closed at 2.52 (39.7%)
Solid 6.6% edge at FanDuel (2.66). Elo agrees (-39 gap).
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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