New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap
MLB · June 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — New York Mets LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 37% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +6.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.5pp · closed at 2.52 (39.7%)
New York Mets
Model
37%
Market
38%
Edge
+6.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
41.0%
—
Calibration offset
43.2%
+2.2pp
Platt rescale
37.6%
-5.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.7%
-1.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
36.7%
+1.0pp
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