Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics Recap
MLB · June 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Los Angeles Angels WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.6pp · closed at 2.37 (42.2%)
Los Angeles Angels
Model
41%
Market
41%
Edge
+4.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
41.2%
—
Calibration offset
43.5%
+2.3pp
Platt rescale
38.4%
-5.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.8%
-0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.7%
+2.9pp
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