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Los Angeles Angels @ Athletics Recap

MLB · June 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Los Angeles Angels WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Los Angeles Angels at 41% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +4.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.6pp  ·  closed at 2.37 (42.2%)

Small Play Dog play
Los Angeles Angels
+142 on FanDuel
Model 41%
Market 41%
Edge +4.5 pts

Solid 4.5% edge at FanDuel (2.42). Elo agrees (-38 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
41.2%
Calibration offset
43.5% +2.3pp
Platt rescale
38.4% -5.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
37.8% -0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
40.7% +2.9pp

Model performance on Los Angeles Angels picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
25
W - L
10 - 15
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+5.3pt
ROI
-32.4%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.