Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · June 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +2.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.0pp · closed at 2.05 (48.8%)
Chicago White Sox
Model
49%
Market
50%
Edge
+2.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
53.0%
—
+ Season record + form
55.8%
+2.8pp
Calibration offset
53.9%
-1.9pp
Platt rescale
46.8%
-7.1pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.7%
-2.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.6%
+3.9pp
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