Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners Recap
MLB · June 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Seattle Mariners WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 36% against FanDuel's implied 38% — an edge of +10.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +12.3pp · closed at 2.79 (35.8%)
Seattle Mariners
Model
36%
Market
38%
Edge
+10.3 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Final model probability
36.3%
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