Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · June 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Baltimore Orioles WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 36% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +7.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +11.4pp · closed at 3.06 (32.7%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
36%
Market
36%
Edge
+7.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
36.1%
—
+ Season record + form
34.8%
-1.3pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
35.8%
+1.0pp
Calibration offset
39.9%
+4.1pp
Platt rescale
34.6%
-5.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.5%
+0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
35.6%
+0.1pp
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