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Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · June 21, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Baltimore Orioles WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 36% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +7.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +11.4pp  ·  closed at 3.06 (32.7%)

Pass Dog play
Baltimore Orioles
+176 on FanDuel
Model 36%
Market 36%
Edge +7.8 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.5pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
36.1%
+ Season record + form
34.8% -1.3pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
35.8% +1.0pp
Calibration offset
39.9% +4.1pp
Platt rescale
34.6% -5.3pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
35.5% +0.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
35.6% +0.1pp

Model performance on Baltimore Orioles picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
12
W - L
5 - 6
Win rate
45%
Avg CLV
+3.6pt
ROI
-11.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.