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San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers Recap

MLB · June 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — San Diego Padres WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 47% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp  ·  closed at 2.13 (46.9%)

Small Play Dog play
San Diego Padres
+106 on FanDuel
Model 47%
Market 49%
Edge +2.6 pts

Solid 2.6% edge at FanDuel (2.06).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
48.3%
+ Season record + form
49.9% +1.6pp
Platt rescale
43.1% -6.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.1% -1.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.3% +5.2pp

Model performance on San Diego Padres picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
32
W - L
12 - 20
Win rate
38%
Avg CLV
+5.2pt
ROI
-38.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.