San Diego Padres @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · June 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — San Diego Padres WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 47% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.6pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 2.13 (46.9%)
San Diego Padres
Model
47%
Market
49%
Edge
+2.6 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
48.3%
—
+ Season record + form
49.9%
+1.6pp
Platt rescale
43.1%
-6.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
42.1%
-1.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.3%
+5.2pp
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