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New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Recap

MLB · June 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — New York Mets LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked New York Mets at 38% against FanDuel's implied 39% — an edge of +5.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.5pp  ·  closed at 2.70 (37.0%)

Pass Dog play
New York Mets
+154 on FanDuel
Model 38%
Market 39%
Edge +5.2 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.8pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
41.0%
Calibration offset
43.3% +2.3pp
Platt rescale
37.6% -5.7pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
36.1% -1.5pp
Final model probability
38.3% +2.2pp

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