Minnesota Twins @ Arizona Diamondbacks Recap
MLB · June 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 40% against FanDuel's implied 41% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.7pp · closed at 2.49 (40.2%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
40%
Market
41%
Edge
+5.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
42.3%
—
Calibration offset
44.5%
+2.2pp
Platt rescale
37.6%
-6.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
38.5%
+0.9pp
Final model probability
40.3%
+1.8pp
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