Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers Recap

MLB · June 20, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Chicago White Sox LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago White Sox at 48% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +3.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.2pp · closed at 2.03 (49.3%)

Small Play Dog play

Chicago White Sox

Model 48%

Market 50%

Edge +3.0 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

53.0% —

+ Season record + form

55.8% +2.8pp

Calibration offset

53.8% -2.0pp

Platt rescale

46.8% -7.0pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

44.4% -2.4pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

47.6% +3.2pp

Model performance on Chicago White Sox picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

14 - 8

Win rate

64%

Avg CLV

+3.2pt

ROI

+29.9%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.