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Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · June 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 35% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.0pp  ·  closed at 2.83 (35.3%)

Small Play Dog play
Baltimore Orioles
+176 on FanDuel
Model 35%
Market 36%
Edge +5.1 pts

Solid 5.1% edge at FanDuel (2.76). Elo agrees (-75 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
36.1%
+ Season record + form
34.8% -1.3pp
Calibration offset
39.1% +4.3pp
Platt rescale
33.7% -5.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
34.5% +0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
35.2% +0.7pp

Model performance on Baltimore Orioles picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
12
W - L
5 - 6
Win rate
45%
Avg CLV
+3.6pt
ROI
-11.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.