Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
MLB · June 19, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Baltimore Orioles LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Baltimore Orioles at 35% against FanDuel's implied 36% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.0pp · closed at 2.83 (35.3%)
Baltimore Orioles
Model
35%
Market
36%
Edge
+5.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
36.1%
—
+ Season record + form
34.8%
-1.3pp
Calibration offset
39.1%
+4.3pp
Platt rescale
33.7%
-5.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
34.5%
+0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
35.2%
+0.7pp
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