Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · June 18, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Toronto Blue Jays WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 50% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.0pp · closed at 2.23 (44.8%)
Toronto Blue Jays
Model
50%
Market
52%
Edge
+2.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.9%
—
+ Season record + form
53.2%
+2.3pp
Calibration offset
52.1%
-1.1pp
Platt rescale
44.1%
-8.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.9%
+0.8pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.3%
+5.4pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.