Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · June 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Toronto Blue Jays WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 48% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.0pp · closed at 2.04 (49.0%)
Toronto Blue Jays
Model
48%
Market
50%
Edge
+4.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.9%
—
+ Season record + form
53.2%
+2.3pp
Calibration offset
52.0%
-1.2pp
Platt rescale
44.0%
-8.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.0%
+1.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.0%
+3.0pp
Final model probability
48.0%
+0.1pp
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