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Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox Recap

MLB · June 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Toronto Blue Jays WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Toronto Blue Jays at 48% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.0pp  ·  closed at 2.04 (49.0%)

Pass Dog play
Toronto Blue Jays
+100 on FanDuel
Model 48%
Market 50%
Edge +4.0 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.9pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.9%
+ Season record + form
53.2% +2.3pp
Calibration offset
52.0% -1.2pp
Platt rescale
44.0% -8.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.0% +1.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
48.0% +3.0pp
Final model probability
48.0% +0.1pp

Model performance on Toronto Blue Jays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
23
W - L
9 - 14
Win rate
39%
Avg CLV
+3.0pt
ROI
-37.2%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.