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Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · June 16, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Tampa Bay Rays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Tampa Bay Rays at 44% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +5.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.7pp  ·  closed at 2.26 (44.2%)

Small Play Dog play
Tampa Bay Rays
+120 on FanDuel
Model 44%
Market 45%
Edge +5.5 pts

Solid 5.5% edge at FanDuel (2.20).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
45.0%
+ Season record + form
45.8% +0.8pp
Calibration offset
46.9% +1.1pp
Platt rescale
40.0% -6.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.9% +1.9pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
44.5% +2.6pp

Model performance on Tampa Bay Rays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
56
W - L
24 - 32
Win rate
43%
Avg CLV
+4.1pt
ROI
-11.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.