Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · June 16, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 46% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +3.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.7pp · closed at 2.12 (47.2%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
46%
Market
47%
Edge
+3.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.0%
—
+ Season record + form
44.5%
+0.6pp
Calibration offset
46.3%
+1.8pp
Platt rescale
38.4%
-7.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.1%
+1.7pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
45.7%
+5.6pp
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