Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · June 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 50% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.8pp · closed at 1.96 (51.0%)
Houston Astros
Model
50%
Market
51%
Edge
+2.8 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
55.3%
—
+ Season record + form
54.5%
-0.8pp
Calibration offset
53.0%
-1.5pp
Platt rescale
45.8%
-7.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
45.2%
-0.6pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.0%
+4.8pp
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