Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros Recap

MLB · June 17, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Houston Astros WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Houston Astros at 50% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.8pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.8pp · closed at 1.96 (51.0%)

Small Play

Houston Astros

Model 50%

Market 51%

Edge +2.8 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

55.3% —

+ Season record + form

54.5% -0.8pp

Calibration offset

53.0% -1.5pp

Platt rescale

45.8% -7.2pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

45.2% -0.6pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

50.0% +4.8pp

Model performance on Houston Astros picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

10 - 5

Win rate

67%

Avg CLV

+1.4pt

ROI

+59.8%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.