Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros Recap
MLB · June 16, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Detroit Tigers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Detroit Tigers at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +7.7pp · closed at 2.51 (39.8%)
FADE GUARD: market moved 1.8pp against this side since publish
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
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