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Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers Recap

MLB · June 15, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Tampa Bay Rays LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Tampa Bay Rays at 42% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +7.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +11.3pp  ·  closed at 2.55 (39.2%)

Pass Dog play
Tampa Bay Rays
+132 on FanDuel
Model 42%
Market 43%
Edge +7.4 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.8pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
45.0%
+ Season record + form
45.8% +0.8pp
Calibration offset
46.8% +1.0pp
Platt rescale
39.6% -7.2pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.6% +2.0pp
Final model probability
42.5% +0.9pp

Model performance on Tampa Bay Rays picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
56
W - L
24 - 32
Win rate
43%
Avg CLV
+4.1pt
ROI
-11.3%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.