Minnesota Twins @ Texas Rangers Recap
MLB · June 15, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Minnesota Twins WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 43% against FanDuel's implied 43% — an edge of +6.5pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +6.9pp · closed at 2.32 (43.1%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
43%
Market
43%
Edge
+6.5 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
44.0%
—
+ Season record + form
44.5%
+0.6pp
Calibration offset
46.2%
+1.7pp
Platt rescale
38.3%
-7.9pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
40.3%
+2.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
43.0%
+2.7pp
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