Lakeshore Edge Create Free Account

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago Cubs Recap

MLB · June 15, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Colorado Rockies LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Colorado Rockies at 34% against FanDuel's implied 34% — an edge of +5.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.8pp  ·  closed at 2.91 (34.4%)

Small Play Dog play
Colorado Rockies
+194 on FanDuel
Model 34%
Market 34%
Edge +5.1 pts

Solid 5.1% edge at FanDuel (2.94). Elo agrees (-54 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
39.0%
+ Season record + form
38.2% -0.8pp
Calibration offset
41.8% +3.6pp
Platt rescale
34.3% -7.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
32.0% -2.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
33.5% +1.5pp

Model performance on Colorado Rockies picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
43
W - L
21 - 22
Win rate
49%
Avg CLV
+5.1pt
ROI
+17.5%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.