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Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers Recap

MLB · June 14, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — Milwaukee Brewers WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Milwaukee Brewers at 49% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +7.3pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +9.6pp  ·  closed at 2.12 (47.2%)

Pass Dog play
Milwaukee Brewers
+102 on FanDuel
Model 49%
Market 50%
Edge +7.3 pts

FADE GUARD: market moved 1.9pp against this side since publish

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
58.7%
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
58.3% -0.4pp
Calibration offset
55.9% -2.4pp
Platt rescale
48.8% -7.1pp
Final model probability
49.1% +0.3pp

Model performance on Milwaukee Brewers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
33
W - L
14 - 17
Win rate
45%
Avg CLV
+3.4pt
ROI
+8.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.