Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · June 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Texas Rangers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 47% against FanDuel's implied 49% — an edge of +2.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.7pp · closed at 2.09 (47.9%)
Texas Rangers
Model
47%
Market
49%
Edge
+2.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.9%
—
+ Season record + form
53.2%
+2.3pp
Calibration offset
52.0%
-1.2pp
Platt rescale
44.6%
-7.4pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.4%
-3.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.0%
+5.6pp
Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.