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St. Louis Cardinals @ Minnesota Twins Recap

MLB · June 13, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

WIN

Model called it — St. Louis Cardinals WIN.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked St. Louis Cardinals at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.7pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.5pp  ·  closed at 1.97 (50.8%)

Small Play
St. Louis Cardinals
-106 on FanDuel
Model 51%
Market 52%
Edge +2.7 pts

Solid 2.7% edge at FanDuel (1.94). Elo agrees (+49 gap).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
53.6%
+ Season record + form
56.5% +2.9pp
Calibration offset
54.4% -2.1pp
Platt rescale
46.3% -8.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
50.7% +4.4pp

Model performance on St. Louis Cardinals picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
42
W - L
17 - 25
Win rate
40%
Avg CLV
+4.6pt
ROI
-25.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.