Chicago Cubs @ San Francisco Giants Recap
MLB · June 12, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
Model called it — Chicago Cubs WIN.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Chicago Cubs at 47% against FanDuel's implied 50% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +5.4pp · closed at 2.13 (46.9%)
Chicago Cubs
Model
47%
Market
50%
Edge
+2.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
52.9%
—
+ Season record + form
55.7%
+2.8pp
Calibration offset
53.8%
-2.0pp
Platt rescale
45.8%
-8.0pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
44.5%
-1.3pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
47.2%
+2.7pp
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