Texas Rangers @ Boston Red Sox Recap
MLB · June 12, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Texas Rangers LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Texas Rangers at 45% against FanDuel's implied 47% — an edge of +3.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +3.6pp · closed at 2.15 (46.5%)
Texas Rangers
Model
45%
Market
47%
Edge
+3.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.9%
—
+ Season record + form
53.2%
+2.3pp
Calibration offset
52.0%
-1.2pp
Platt rescale
44.2%
-7.8pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.0%
-3.2pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
45.4%
+4.4pp
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