San Diego Padres @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · June 12, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — San Diego Padres LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked San Diego Padres at 45% against FanDuel's implied 45% — an edge of +4.0pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.7pp · closed at 2.14 (46.7%)
San Diego Padres
Model
45%
Market
45%
Edge
+4.0 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.0%
—
+ Season record + form
52.1%
+2.1pp
Platt rescale
44.5%
-7.6pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
41.4%
-3.1pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
45.0%
+3.6pp
Final model probability
45.0%
-0.1pp
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