Seattle Mariners @ Baltimore Orioles Recap
MLB · June 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Seattle Mariners LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Seattle Mariners at 51% against FanDuel's implied 52% — an edge of +2.4pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +4.2pp · closed at 1.98 (50.5%)
Seattle Mariners
Model
51%
Market
52%
Edge
+2.4 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.9%
—
+ Season record + form
53.1%
+2.2pp
Calibration offset
52.2%
-0.9pp
Platt rescale
46.7%
-5.5pp
Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)
47.7%
+1.0pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
51.1%
+3.4pp
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