Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers Recap
MLB · June 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.
This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.
Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 49% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +7.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.
Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.1pp · closed at 2.13 (46.9%)
Minnesota Twins
Model
49%
Market
42%
Edge
+7.1 pts
How the model got here
Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.
Elo baseline
50.0%
—
+ Season record + form
52.1%
+2.1pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
51.6%
-0.5pp
Platt rescale
44.7%
-6.9pp
Line-movement nudge
43.2%
-1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.1%
+5.9pp
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