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Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers Recap

MLB · June 11, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Minnesota Twins LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Minnesota Twins at 49% against FanDuel's implied 42% — an edge of +7.1pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.1pp  ·  closed at 2.13 (46.9%)

Small Play Dog play
Minnesota Twins
+138 on FanDuel
Model 49%
Market 42%
Edge +7.1 pts

Solid 7.1% edge at FanDuel (2.38).

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline
50.0%
+ Season record + form
52.1% +2.1pp
+ Factors (pitcher / bullpen / weather / park)
51.6% -0.5pp
Platt rescale
44.7% -6.9pp
Line-movement nudge
43.2% -1.5pp
Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)
49.1% +5.9pp

Model performance on Minnesota Twins picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks
24
W - L
8 - 16
Win rate
33%
Avg CLV
+2.9pt
ROI
-27.0%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.