Milwaukee Brewers @ Athletics Recap

MLB · June 10, 2026 · Pre-game prediction preserved, outcome auto-graded against ESPN.

LOSS

This one missed — Milwaukee Brewers LOSS.

Pre-game, the Lakeshore Edge model picked Milwaukee Brewers at 53% against FanDuel's implied 51% — an edge of +2.2pt. The full reasoning is preserved below for audit.

Closing-line value vs Pinnacle: +2.7pp · closed at 1.98 (50.5%)

Small Play

Milwaukee Brewers

Model 53%

Market 51%

Edge +2.2 pts

How the model got here

Each row is a stage in the probability calculation. The bar is the probability at that stage; the delta on the right is the shift from the previous stage.

Elo baseline

52.7% —

+ Season record + form

55.5% +2.8pp

Calibration offset

54.1% -1.4pp

Platt rescale

50.3% -3.8pp

Injury report (drag - opponent's drag)

48.2% -2.1pp

Moneyline normalization (both sides to 100%)

53.2% +5.0pp

Model performance on Milwaukee Brewers picks (60d)

How this side has graded in the journal over the last 60 days. Small slice — context, not a guarantee.

Picks

W - L

12 - 17

Win rate

41%

Avg CLV

+2.6pt

ROI

+4.7%

Sports betting involves risk. Past model performance is no guarantee of future results. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER (US) or visit ncpgambling.org for help.